Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 14.908105 17.008515 19.261331 21.852892 24.747222 27.875534 31.507880
2025-08-17 11.679897 14.518921 17.792822 21.829301 26.652736 32.211316 39.080330
2025-08-24 10.022345 13.168657 16.969308 21.864737 27.965697 35.278185 44.661471
2025-08-31 8.631952 11.931259 16.088233 21.657052 28.861119 37.799022 49.650383
2025-09-07 7.702332 11.124559 15.595852 21.789892 30.059591 40.620649 55.011246
2025-09-14 7.115855 10.691165 15.516434 22.402192 31.853680 44.232069 61.501752
2025-09-21 6.352046 9.919680 14.889152 22.187114 32.474256 46.274529 65.963051
2025-09-28 5.476202 8.892109 13.803588 21.225540 31.966105 46.718526 68.229751
2025-10-05 5.167391 8.669580 13.840142 21.840820 33.672002 50.238868 74.828417
2025-10-12 4.846867 8.394088 13.766786 22.271456 35.110277 53.420382 81.057116
2025-10-19 4.422099 7.911531 13.336324 22.123640 35.667952 55.341972 85.538553
2025-10-26 4.025848 7.436524 12.875927 21.886629 36.057424 57.008106 89.683800
2025-11-02 3.713033 7.079400 12.585009 21.908065 36.860469 59.348648 94.969727
2025-11-09 3.463656 6.808450 12.412419 22.102945 37.936348 62.137514 101.033914
2025-11-16 3.196920 6.479637 12.113980 22.062151 38.618220 64.329886 106.248076
2025-11-23 2.932155 6.128561 11.748693 21.879313 39.048264 66.132461 110.910388
2025-11-30 2.742938 5.899657 11.575587 22.004048 39.975134 68.733293 116.888411
2025-12-07 2.644829 5.835827 11.688570 22.624972 41.750153 72.741477 125.216971
2025-12-14 2.433942 5.530344 11.340142 22.406856 42.084517 74.425655 129.876751
2025-12-21 2.143070 5.034613 10.601462 21.437253 41.066674 73.841909 130.824849
2025-12-28 2.078156 5.000407 10.730800 22.057795 42.849446 77.953822 139.586053
2026-01-04 1.994519 4.918511 10.761147 22.492246 44.315590 81.578766 147.649434
2026-01-11 1.850914 4.692700 10.492394 22.343121 44.720112 83.409144 152.761292